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Saturday, August 16, 2014

Portents of a Looming War

It has been 70+ years since the last world war. And I see portents of a another one coming:


  1. Forgetfullness - the generations that went through WWII and its aftermath and side effects are now out of the picture of governance and decision making. It seems to be time to make the same mistakes again.
  2. Consequences of bad governance are inefficiencies and suffering spread across larger and larger swaths of the population. Rather than correct the problem of bad governance, governors can hold on to power by starting conflicts and by scapegoating the other in their midst or outside. There seems to be an increase of both of these in various societies. We have examples of this with immigrants (legal and illegal), ethnic or religious minorities in various countries, demonizing of a particular religion / belief system and its adherents, greater insularity as in the focus on more immediate family and friends, ... This is visible in all the current super powers or those with significant nuclear capability. Other examples of this include the Russian - Ukrainian conflict. China and Japan's contention over islands in the Pacific. The middle east oven temperature increasing with conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, ...
  3. Memetic contagion of the fear meme - perhaps started with 9/11 (?). There is a diffuse threat identified (terrorism) and then directing more and more resources to address this diffuse threat. The meme then takes on a life of its own. There are always issues in any context on which one can base strategic changes towards a more warlike stance. We see Japan reinterpreting its constitution and rearming. Germany is similarly changing its stance. We see Russia displaying more of its military prowess. We see USA with its drone fleets and various forms of overseas military deployments. We see China with it multi-warhead icbms and satellite killers.
  4. Gravity or the consolidation of power. The 70+ years since the last world war has been sufficient time for power to be consolidated into smaller circles. This consolidation, in part, is also what leads to bad governance. This consolidation of power / resources also leads to great imbalances. It creates an unstable structure which is prone to collapse of its own weight. As our systems have grown more complex over the last century, our structures of control have not evolved with that complexification. And the imbalance is one major factor that can lead to systemic restructuring / breakdown. And war is one way that happens. 
  5. Shifting power balances - China is now the #2 economy. This puts Japan in 3rd place. China is jockeying for 1st position. There are also shifting balances along the spectrum. South Korea, India, ... are playing a greater role in world commerce and also politics.  Shifts in power hierarchies typically don't happen without some degree of conflict to establish the new order.
  6. I expect there are other major dynamics at play. As I discover them in my peregrinations in the noosphere, I'll note them here.

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